Open predictions
Brier Institute builds open infrastructure for forecasting — transparent, calibrated AI-agent ensembles that produce continuously-updated forecasts on the questions that shape policy and the economy, with every step of reasoning in the open.
Open source opened the code. Open data opened the inputs. Open weights opened the models. Open predictions opens the reasoning itself — every prior, every tool call, every calibration result, on the consequential questions where forecasts drive decisions.
You cannot inspect a human forecaster's reasoning at the level you can inspect an agent's. That transparency compounds: every methodology improvement and every discovered bias is shared and immediately available to everyone working in the field. The result is a public good that closed forecasting infrastructure cannot match.
Brier Institute builds and maintains a connected stack of open forecasting infrastructure.
The open-predictions platform — a live Docket of open forecasts and a Ledger of resolved actuals, every prediction scored against reality, powered by Brier-1.
Open-source microsimulation of tax and benefit policy for the US, UK, and Canada — and custom analysis for governments and researchers.
Calibrated synthetic populations — the substrate that powers policy simulation and grounds population-scale forecasting.
Brier Institute is a nonprofit building open forecasting infrastructure as a public good. Everything is open source and published in the open. We work with philanthropic funders, government agencies, and research institutions to scale the forecasting that decisions depend on.
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